The Future of Algae Fuels Is … When?

The Associated Press Strains of algae in the “strain room” at the algae-fuel maker Solazyme in California. A new study suggests that production of algae-based fuels won’t reach commercial scale anytime soon.

As I write in Tuesday’s Times, a new study from the Rand Corporation, the global policy think tank based in Santa Monica, Calif., and formed more than 60 years ago to advise the American government on military issues, suggests that Department of Defense is wasting its time exploring alternative fuels.

It raised particular questions about the near-term viability of algae-based fuels, which the study’s authors considered to be more or less laboratory-level stuff — and certainly not likely to scale up to any significant extent in the next 10 years.

Given that the military has gone to great lengths to publicize its ongoing efforts to go green, and in particular, algae-green, the report did not sit well with with everyone.

“We’ve talked to the companies working on algae-based fuels,” said Tom Hicks, the deputy assistant secretary for energy with the United States Navy. “We’ve also talked to private equity firms, venture capital firms — we have a good understanding of what’s happening in the marketplace.”

Indeed, several critics of the study suggested that its authors failed to engage a number of sectors that might have given them a better understanding of algae’s potential as a liquid fuel, its overall state of development and its potential for ramping up to commercial scale at some point in the future.

Certainly a number of investors continue to bet on the promise of squeezing oil from algae in amounts substantial enough to put a dent in the use of petroleum-based fuels. And dozens of companies and academic labs are busy chasing that dream.

Despite all this, the Rand study’s lead author, Jim Bartis, remained steadfastly skeptical that the technology would be ready for prime time within the next decade — and certainly not ready for widespread military use.

“We think algae is great, but it’s a research topic,” he said in an interview. “There is no evidence that we can produce it economically anytime soon.”

“The less the you know about a technology,” he added, “the better it looks.”